JKSE Target & Analysis

New Minister of Finance has been elected, who is very surprisingly finally becoming our MoF, who is not even ever becoming a Minister, Agus Marto. He was an ex-chief director of Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK, BMRI:IJ).

Global market is still unstable with a very high volatility, that after Greece's problem has been solved, come another problem, like the prohibition of short selling in Deutsche Exchange, Oil is dropping, Gold, Silver , Platinum & Palladium are too...

Technically, we can see that even the indicators are oversold, there's almost no strength of bull can be shown in the trading time since the bear is taking control. Seems the power of bear is getting stronger & stronger. We can see that the pattern of Elliot wave for this chart is quite valid. So, my analysis today is for the next lower target. If the price is going down without any prolonging of the down pressure, the price target will be quite near which is at 2575-2590, but if the bear is prolonging the power, then the next target will be around 2395-2410.

As we can see that we're still in a wave 3 (down), so the potential to get upward is still open that we must wait for wave 4 (up) confirmation.

Rating : Hold; TP: 2685-2700 ; 2575-2590 ; 2395-2410

Happy Investing^^

Disclaimer ON!!!

Technical or psychological??

Suddenly at the end of the day, everything rebounded that surprisingly reducing short sellers profits. Hence, it might be a technical rebound that after days of black. But, for your information that underlying like Crude Oil didn't affected by the market said OPEC, that they said this declines is just a psychological decline. Which might be quite true, let's see today...

As this morning CL has dropped to it's support level at $70s & finally rebounded.

Futures are greening at the end of the day...

Tomorrow might be an optimistic day, but still we must be quite careful as this might be a bull-trap.

Happy Investing^^
Disclaimer ON!!!

Morning Break!!!

Our index is projected to be closing lower roday as there's no good sentiments in regional market.

In the morning, Dow-Futures (YM) is traded lower about 70 pts, while S&P-Futures (ES)is traded lower about 8 pts. In the other hand, as I analyzed days ago that Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) will go down, yet it has been traded lower, for May expiration futures have declined around $1, for June Expiration futures have been traded $1.22 lower than the previous closing, this might give some impacts to our stock price as most of them will be traded lower.

Target upward movement of JKSE is only up to 2870-2885 around middle bollinger at 2886 is the most & that's our time for us to realized the profit or even realize some losses. This target is  counted based on Elliot Wave theory & Fibonacci ratio, so it's quite wise for us to take profit.

Happy Investing^^

Disclaimer ON!!!

Crude Oil (Light Sweet) CL/$WTIC Analysis <--- BEAR

As panic selling of investors is still shading the global market, one of the most liquid underlying is also be affected, which is Crude Oil (CL/$WTIC). This underlying has gone down so fast in just 2 weeks that it slumped from $87 to $73-$76, which is a great number of around 12-20%.

This is one of the cause of the uncertainty of European market also, which affect the global market as well as Dow Jones Industrial. The other thing is that people are moving from most underlyings to others, like Gold, which rallied & break the new high again.

Technically, we can see that it has broken the MA200 & MA250 which is said to be a long-term line / support. This is one of the indication of bear market soon to dominating the market. The other indicator is that EMA5-EMA13 has deadly crossed since last Monday, which means that the short bull has gone away after the trade is done lower day by day. The other indicator is the double top pattern that it had failed to keep at the level of $84 which eventually lead to a confirmation to a mini double top. The other simple pattern of ascending triangle at resistance of $78 with the support trend line, which is just broken down ward which means the continuation of bear pattern. The other indicator is showed by RSI which showed the loss of the strength of the bull. ADX has showed bear (DI->DI+) & confirmed by the crossing of DI- to ADX. Lastly, we can see that MACD is going down further & yet the histogram is having a longer histogram which indicates the pressure of selling is increasing.

 

Rating: Short; TP: $68-$71

Happy Investing^^

Disclaimer ON!!!

Unstable Market

29 days to go to FIFA World Cup 2010, South Africa, market is very unstabel at this time, no recommendation for now, as the last day of trading, the index went up with a  very low volume.

We can see from the charts that the last 2 weeks volume dropped when the index is increasing & the volume increase when the index is down.

This indicates the declining of the index. No target has been made.

Happy Investing^^
Disclaimer ON!!!