Trendlines

A lot of perceptions in trendline drawing these days, some people say that drawing trendline only valid at the closing price, the other one say at the shadow.

Personally, I draw trendline at the shadows as it gives more confirmations as we must be more detail, but we're not going to talk about it. I'm going to discuss of how to draw a trend line. First of all, we must see the big picture of the chart, whether it is an up trend or down trend, then we must know the time horizon of our trading whether we are a weekly trader, monthly or a very long term trader.

Secondly after a time series has been used, then we can start to see where is the bottom & top, usually support trendline is drawn at the bottom & resistance trendline is drawn on top, which finally create a channel or sometimes can create a pattern. Drawing trendline may not start from the left to the right but from the right to the left, as we're looking at the most recent data. See the example below:

Daily Chart, short-term horizon

Weekly Chart, mid-term horizon

Happy Investing^^
Disclaimer ON!!!

JKSE Update

After closing the week at intraday high, JKSE seems to be consolidating at this moment with a tendency of declining, with a lower selling pressure the index seems to be declining slowly but will not affect some defensive stocks that we can collect at this moment before our index continues its rally for the upcoming months. As investors are now allocating their money at safer instruments, stocks market were rushed weeks ago which caused the stock market to be going down.

As a lot of big investors has exited the market & still waiting for the Indonesian Bank to announce the rate in February, January seems to be a consolidation time for our market but not for some stocks especially some stocks which are believed to have good performance in 2010. I believe that after the announcement of the BI rate, our market will get back to the track soon as the capital inflow will continue to come to Indonesia as one of the emerging market which has good growth in economics.

Technically, I see that our index has just finished its pattern of triple top or double top and I believe that the tendency of market sell-off is still exist but not as big as previous weeks, that's why I said it seems to be consolidating until the interest rate has been announced. There're a lot of predictions published by analyst that our interest rate will have a hike at 25-125bps, which will make oiur interest rate become around 6.75-7.75%.

Here's the chart we can see:

Rating: Hold; Target: 3275.48 - 3283.85

The stock list will be published tonight or tomorrow morning, a lot of stocks to be watched & expected to rally later on.

Happy Investing^^

Disclaimer ON!!!

JKSE Today

Today, our index opened nearly flat, but the index finally skids again & went as predicted. I remain to be cash full this time & wait till the market to finish the consolidation. Yet, our pick for this year will be more specific not only the small valued or cheaper value, but also the less sensitive stock toward the BI Rate & Inflation, which are the main threat for our trading this year. Hence, the banking sector will be lack of favorable for me this year.

Be very careful & aware of the stock picking & the constraint that can affect the price. Happy trading & have a nice weekend. The target of index remain the same but a bit increased to around 3300. The detail will be posted later

Best Regards,
Christopher Tahir
Blog: http://ez-stock.blogspot.com
MSN: chris_tahir@hotmail.com
YM: chris_tahir@ymail.com

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Today's index

Today the index moved up rapidly,but unfortunately it pulled back again since the 2nd session. This is what I meant as a fake bull and today we saw a bullish reversal candle which is a shootin star.

This can be only an ordinary candle & also reversal one. For me, it's more to a reversal candle which is sometimes quite valid. For sure, a lot of people would be trapped today, but for me, it's quite usual that we're being trapped in this kind of situation. For those who are in full position, it's better to sell on strength, but still better to be a fat cash right now

Best Regards,
Christopher Tahir
Blog: http://ez-stock.blogspot.com
MSN: chris_tahir@hotmail.com
YM: chris_tahir@ymail.com

Mail to my Y!Group:
ez-stock-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

EZ Stock List (Jan 13, 2011)

Today our index rallied a bit but I think that this is not a confirmation of the bull has been back as the value of transaction for today still less than yesterday's value, but even it's going up a bit & some stocks are showing a buy signal, we can try to have a bit of profit this time but still keep in mind there's only a bit of surge today. Back to the channel but again we see an almost the same pattern of what happened in May.

See the chart at the Green & Red line, as we can see that there's almost the same pattern in the volume, yet both are white candle with a formation "engulfing-like" pattern, both close only a few points below the intraday high.

 Based on the pattern, if tomorrow really slides down again, then the next target is around 3200.19 based on Elliot Wave counting.

But still, we can watch some stocks which are quite defensive even in such bad day for our index. When index went down so fast & hard, they aren't went down that fast.

1. Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal (BORN.JK)

Rating: Buy; Entry: 1770-1790, S/L: 1580-1570, TP: 2050-2100

2. Jasuindo Tiga Perkasa (JTPE.JK)

Rating: Buy; Entry: 1250-1260, S/L: 1180-1170, TP: 1610-1630

Happy Investing^^

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