JKSE Currently

After plunging days ago, today it rebounded a lot & forming a bullish engulfing pattern in the daily chart. The main question in this situation should be "Is this a real one or a trap one???". Let's check it in the chart then.

Based on the monthly chart, JKSE seems to have its strong support at MA25 & Fibonacci Retracement 23.6%, which seems to be a strong one for this time. But let's take a look back in a moment to 2008, we saw that the monthly chart showing that there are several times of bouncing from 23.6% before another plunge to 50-61.8% area. Will it happen again? Better watch out, put a very tight stop loss.

Have a good nite....^^

Happy Investing^^
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Gold Simple Analysis

I tried to look at gold which has plunged quite deep which is one of the deepest plunge last week since 1980s. And I see the opportunity to re-entry gold is quite close now...

Gold seems to be having its support at around 1500, clearly after finishing the double top pattern which targeted at $1492.75, in my chart I see that the Gold price seems to have its support at around 1487.68-1493.41, which is close to that figure at 1492.75. Now, what I think I can do is to manage a portion of my fund, to enter at that price, if it bounces at that level, I'll average up in order to ensure the profit.

Rating: Hold

Happy Investing^^

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Recent update in JKSE

I've just seen that actually sell signal has come since February 2011, which only tell us to trade at short time period. This is because of the instability of our index recently.

Here's the chart that you guys can see from the picture, not much difference but only added an MACD Weighted and also 2 SMA. You guys might guess of why I'm using SMA 13 & 21. The answer for this is because of the Fibonacci numbers (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,etc), why I should use this? Because I used Fibonacci & Elliot Wave theory which are correlated among each other.

Happy weekend^^

Happy Investing^^
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Current Situation

Today JKSE moved in a very positive area closed at 1.7% gain. We saw today's trade was pretty volatile and the index was supported by most bluechips in the market with majority stocks moving flat in the market.

US market trim the losses in early trade, and now moving quite flat, while the EU indices plunged to losses before opening at green area, and it seems that EU indices will close a bit lower today.

The market seems to be waiting for another easing by the authorities of each region. And it looks like the authorities are trying to do some out of the box actions in order to win the market's heart. Nothing we can do but waiting for the certainty of the market.

No one knows whether a crash is approaching or fading, but we can get ready for the worst before it happen. Have a great weekend....

Happy Investing^^
Disclaimer ON!!!

JKSE Worst Scenario for the Next One Month

Today JKSE plunged to 3369.14 pts, which has been discounted by 19.7% from the highest point in this year, 4195.72 pts. Yet, it plunged with a very phenomenal number in Chinese tradition which is -8.88% but with a minus which is not good of course. But, let's see in more detail of what is happening.

From my perspective, I see that the index plunged is due to the high selling pressure and also the panic selling of investors, which is also triggered by the bad economy outlook in US & EU, which is no good at all. The second trigger is the downgrade of Italy as one of the largest economy in EU. The third is the slowing economy of China & Japan.

What is happening in Indonesia? Indonesia still has its inflation under control which is under 5% Aug YTD, the BI Rate is still favorable for investors at 6.75%. But there's one thing that's not favorable which is the valuation of our stock, which is too high. So, in order to get a cheaper price the dip is expected not only by the big player, but also by all traders.

I will show you the analysis using Elliot Wave & Fibonacci Retracement. I start the analysis using monthly chart from mid 2002 up to present. In the Wave theory we know there are 8 waves which are 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C. Since I start the analysis in 2002, then from mid 2002-end of 2007 will be the Wave 1. Jan-Oct 2008 would be the wave 2, the next wave will be from Oct 2008-Aug 2011. The next wave is Wave 4, which is usually equal to the length of wave 2. How can I say that this might be the wave 4??? This is confirmed by the Fibonacci retracement number.

In Fibonacci retracement, there are some numbers that we must remember, which are 23.6%, 38.2% , 61.8%. These figures are very important especially in identifying the possibility of extension in the wave. In the wave theory usually there's a major wave (1-3-5) that extended or contracted by those figures. Here's the calculation for JKSE from the chart below.

I started counting the wave from the dip in 2002 which was the dot-com bubble time that drag down most tech stocks. So, we can see the chart since 2002 up to now. How can I say the wave 4 seems to be coming????

Wave 1 = 2838.38 - 323.32 = 2515.06

Wave 2 = 2838.38 - 1089.34 = 1749.04

Wave 3 ==> 3 possibilities:

1. Extended by 23.6% = 3108.61 => JKSE Wave 3 target = 3108.61 + 1089.34 = 4197.95
2. Extended by 38.2% = 3475.81 => JKSE Wave 3 target = 3475.8 + 1089.34 = 4565.15
3. Extended by 61.8% = 4069.37 => JKSE Wave 3 target = 4069.37 + 1089.34 = 5158.71

The nearest with the all time high of JKSE is the 23.6% extension. JKSE all time high was 4195.72, this increase my belief that our index might really plunge by now. But when it might stop??? No one knows. What we can do is only to get ready for the worst.

Wave 4 Target might be the strong support of 2010 to the wave calculation, which is around 2446.68-2502.05. Hopefully this don't happen, but there nothing to lose for just getting ready for the worst happening.

Have a great night.....^^

Happy Investing^^

Disclaimer ON!!!

Happy Investing^^

Disclaimer ON!!!