IHSG 2014 Outlook

Setelah digebuk di tahun 2013 yang lalu, saya lihat sih tahun ini IHSG bakal kinclong. Sudah dilihat di awal tahun dibuka dengan poin hijau, walaupun di hari keduanya diseret balik ke bawah. Saya lihat di kuartal 1 tahun 2014 ini tidak akan ada banyak perubahan yang artinya jangan harap IHSG bisa naik kencang sebelum ada hasil bagus.

Saya melihat IHSG kemungkinannya akan bergerak naik, diikuti beberapa hasil analisa ekonomi yang menggembirakan walaupun inflasi RI masi agak tinggi. Neraca perdagangan RI yang surplus membuat IHSG mendapat angin segar, hal ini mungkin disebabkan tingginya kurs USD yang menakutkan beberapa importir pula. Di sisi lain, ada Dr Doom a.k.a. Nouriel Roubini yang menyatakan bahwa 2014 ini semua market akan bagus baik yang maju maupun berkembang termasuk Indonesia.

Di sisi lain, faktor pemilu juga menjadi salah satu faktor pemicunya, dimana dikarenakan ditakutkan akan pemilu, sehingga banyak investor yang memilih keluar dulu untuk menunggu kepastian. Hal ini menyebabkan beberapa saham unggulan menjadi undervalue sehingga menjadi kesempatan bagi beberapa investor untuk masuk kembali di harga rendah.

Berikut grafik statistik IHSG di kala pemilu, disini tanpa disadari ternyata pemilu memberikan dampak positif kepada IHSG.

Disini saya melihat ada peluang untuk naik dimana masih banyak saham belum priced-in sehingga ada peluang untuk naik lagi.

Pemilihan saham yang saya lihat masih baik adalah saham pada sektor Agriculture, Misc Industry, Basic Industry, Trades, Service & Investment, dan yang terakhir adalah Manufacturing Index.

Untuk saham-sahamnya secara spesifik akan kita bahas di postingan berikutnya :)

BACK!!!

After long time I haven't given any analysis, today I will start to give you guys some analysis.

The analysis still with the Jakarta Stock Exchange chart, which is quite complicated after today's closing.

Based on the technical analysis, the JKSE should have been quite oversold, whereas the index is expected to be down. In JKSE chart, it shown that the short term pattern is forming a symmetrical triangle, where for a mid-term it might form 3 possible pattern, such as Rounding Top (increasing price with declining volume), Head & Shoulder & Inverted H&S.

Here's the target for those 3 possible pattern:

1. Rounding Top: TP: 2250-2280

2. Long term H&S : TP: 2007.64-2050

3. Short Term Inverted H&S: TP: 3120-3140

The other indicator showing that the possibility of down movement is from Oscillator which are oversold, the price is increasing but the volume is decreasing. The other is shown by the symmetrical triangle that today's breakout has no volume or lower, yet the candle is forming an inverted hammer which is a top reversal pattern candle.

Happy Investing^^

Disclaimer ON!!!

Market Outlook

The outlook today will be from US indices & JKSE Index. Let's start from the local one as today it closed higher & just broken the 2500 psychological resistance, it seems that JKSE is still moving up. & might go to 2600, but remember, once after touched 2600 please be more careful as last time it really hard to break that level. As JKSE is so high nowadays, we still can speculate a bit on it. Well, in my opinion, get ready with your cash & once it dropped again, we have the cash to buy. Anyway, there's no indicator that recommend to sell. Look at the chart, as the chart is forming well & the economy is growing better than expected, tomorrow might be brighter. Lastly, the Indonesian Statistical Beaureau, stated that they expect Indonesia will grow better than the government's expectation.

Secondly, the favorite one, the Dow Jones Industrial, as it moved in a quite wide range recently. It consists of 30 top industrial companies in USA, well, we can see that it is still near by the 10000 level, but economy is growing & the market activity is recovering.. Yet it is still at mid-term uptrend channel, we can see that it affect our country. Look!!!

Lastly, the S&P500 index which can represent most top 500 companies in USA which is more representative the USA economy, that it isn't in a very 'fit' condition, well, overall US economy is still recovering not really recovered yet, but at this time we can earn more as it is still recovering, not recessing.

Happy Investing^^

Disclaimer ON!!!

IHSG in analysis (Feb 8, 2010)

IHSG is now in a big correction & closed at the short-term support of Fibonacci at 38.2%, and if tomorrow the downward motion continues, then it might continue to go deeper at 2500, 2462.5, 2408, 2383 (might be the worst). Anyway, this time, CASH will be the king...

My own portfolio is 50% of cash, and still wait & see....

For your info, tomorrow will be the cum date of HMSP dividend. Take it or leave it!!!

Happy Investing^^
Disclaimer ON!!!

IHSG a lil'bit

Our index corrected a moment, while it's still bullish.

But be careful of the big correction, get ready with your cash.

Disclaimer ON!!!

IHSG for now on

IHSG has got the January effect and has increased for around 7 days of trading. And it might be corrected soon. We still don't know when will it happen.

For this time, I can only say that keep a little stock & enlarge the cash amount as the uncertainty in January will come soon.

Happy Investing...^^
Disclaimer ON!!!