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Sunday 16 May 2010

Crude Oil (Light Sweet) CL/$WTIC Analysis <--- BEAR

As panic selling of investors is still shading the global market, one of the most liquid underlying is also be affected, which is Crude Oil (CL/$WTIC). This underlying has gone down so fast in just 2 weeks that it slumped from $87 to $73-$76, which is a great number of around 12-20%.

This is one of the cause of the uncertainty of European market also, which affect the global market as well as Dow Jones Industrial. The other thing is that people are moving from most underlyings to others, like Gold, which rallied & break the new high again.

Technically, we can see that it has broken the MA200 & MA250 which is said to be a long-term line / support. This is one of the indication of bear market soon to dominating the market. The other indicator is that EMA5-EMA13 has deadly crossed since last Monday, which means that the short bull has gone away after the trade is done lower day by day. The other indicator is the double top pattern that it had failed to keep at the level of $84 which eventually lead to a confirmation to a mini double top. The other simple pattern of ascending triangle at resistance of $78 with the support trend line, which is just broken down ward which means the continuation of bear pattern. The other indicator is showed by RSI which showed the loss of the strength of the bull. ADX has showed bear (DI->DI+) & confirmed by the crossing of DI- to ADX. Lastly, we can see that MACD is going down further & yet the histogram is having a longer histogram which indicates the pressure of selling is increasing.

 
Rating: Short; TP: $68-$71

Happy Investing^^
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