Crude Oil Condition

Hi friends, long time no post...

This week I spotted that there's an opportunity for us to earn a bit in Crude Oil, but this is only a short term trade, that we see oil has soared from US$80s to around US$110s, while the main cause is the Syria geo-political condition, but this time due to the price is so high and also the increment of crude oil inventory from predicted -1M but the actual is 2.6M which is a huge difference, then I'm 'bear' on crude oil for this short period.

The reason that this is a short term trade is because this trade is taken based on technical analysis decision, but not fully supported by the fundamental or seasonality of the crude oil itself. Technically, we can see that crude oil has soared too much and now the MACD Signal line is bearish as it goes below 0 line, and also it has just broken the lower Darvas Box which can also be the lower-low creation. Besides that the Commercial is buying the plunge, as they are keeping those as stocks when it is plunging.

So, what I can say is, we can short crude oil for this short period of time, but remember it is only for a very short time 1-2 weeks from this post. Because once it's riped (fully accumulated by the commercial), then the rally might come, as the seasonality of crude oil shows that it will always surge at the end of the year, as winter comes and people are buying heating oil.

Rating: Short, TP: 99-100

Happy Investing^^

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