Based on the data released by BPS (Biro Pusat Statistik / Central Statistic Bureau), the economy of Indonesia is growing especially in big cities, which is indicated by the increase of the demand of workers which eventually reducing the unemployment level, the data stated that only a few cities that have their unemployment increase like Aceh, DI Yogyakarta, Bali, West Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, South East Sulawesi, Papua & West Papua. Even there're some cities which unemployent increase but the unemployment is decreased in overall by 370,127, from 8,962,617 to 8,592,490, where as the unemployment trend is going down from 2007-2010 from 10,011,142 to 8,592,490, which means the unemployment has decreased by 14.17% in 4 years, while the employment itself is increasing from 104,870,663 to 107,405,572 which is showing an uptrend and increased by 7.48% from 2007 at which the employment is only around 99,930,217. A lot of expansion in 2010 done by firms can increase the absorption of workers that can eventually increase the economic growth of Indonesia.
Increase in Province Minimum Wage per Month can also increase the consumption of the nation which is a part of the GDP & also by increasing in consumption, then the firms will be less depending on the exports of the firms as they can rely on the consumption which is more stable than exports which is also being affected by the foreign currency rate changes. Well, we can see that there's increasing in Monthly Average of Wage/Salary/Income of Employee the around 1.16% in average which can also affect the consumption increment by around that number. This low number can be implied as low increment in expenses of firm which means if the firm has increment of sales around 10% & let's assume that the variable expenses is around 80%, this means the growth of the company's profit is more than the increment of the expenses which can increase the cash reserve of the company that eventually can be used as investment for the company that can also increase the employment.
A higher rate of inflation than 2009 in 2010 is not a fault of our country that is unable to control the inflation, but it is because of the increase in price of soft commodities especially due to climate problem mostly, which has pushed the inflation of 2010 become around 6.28, which is still standard & not too high dough. As the CPI of Indonesia keep increasing from year to year which is a good sign of increase in the consumption of Indonesia. The consumption itself increase for around 11.3% from year to year.
While exports is also increasing from year to year and in contrast the imports is also decreasing from year to year. This is also one of a good indicator of the economic growth from month to month & year to year. A better economic outlook in 2011 is also one of the affection for the foreign investor to invest in Indonesia as we are now growing & yet the analyst of Stanchart predicted that Indonesia will be one of the leader in 2030.
Declining in the poverty rate is also one of the indicator that some of the government program that can increase the welfare has been accomplished well. So, I hope that 2011 will be a very bright year also especially for consumer sectors, as the consumption keep increasing. The other sector which is quite good for the first semester is the banking sector which is flooded by the liquidity & capital inflow.
In conclusion, we see that our economy is recovering & improving, yet we're in a full employment state with increasing in domestic consumption & exports. Also our inflation is still at stable rate & our interest rate is still sensible and interesting for investors, as the net interest is still reasonable. Accomodative Monetaray Policy is being applied in EU & US countries, which increase the liquidity & capital inflow to the emerging market like Indonesia, which is keep growing since SBY becoming the president.
Last but not the least, be very careful in stock picking & increase the ability of valuation as the market is getting hotter but wrong valuation & stock picking can damage your portofolio. Full investment in the beginning of the period, accurate stock picking & ability of valuation is the theme of 2011. See some second & third liners stock which is expanding & still cheap in valuation.
Happy Investing^^
Disclaimer ON!!!
