After US debt rating was downgraded after market closed last Friday (Saturday in Asia) by S&P to AA+ from AAA, we still can't see the market reaction toward this downgrade, but we can see that Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has plunged >6%.
In my opinion this can't reflect our market for the upcoming week, but this can be a warning for us by now. From the global sentiment, the news are almost all bearish, but the data came out on Friday was bull data. We're digesting what will it be.
Let's see the Dow 1st. In the chart of Dow, we can see that August is a bad month that can be said as one of the worst month. We can see that in the Seasonality Index averagely in 40 years, Dow has August as it's bottom, so if August is dropping should be a fair thing. Overall Dow doesn't seem good in the current state. As we can see that the MACD weighted has just dead crossed and also the Stochastic has moved downward broken the 80 level. Yet the candle is showing no bull power at all as there are 4 blacks. Based on the Seasonality Index chart we can see that there's still a chance of plunging as the bottom might not achieved yet. The index has broken the uptrend line, which is not good for the medium term. See the chart.
That's Dow, back to Indonesia, which has a better future outlook and the higher possibility of gaining investment grade by the rating agencies, with a better economic, cultural outlook, and also higher yield of investment, Indonesia will be a better investment target.Technically, we can see that our index is still performing better and can be said best among all indices in the world as we are still scoring positive year-to-date. Our chart is still showing positive movement of our index, well, this is undeniable that our index is still in bull mode but flattened by the bad global issues. Well, stochastic is still above 80 line which shows the strength of JKSE, Yet seasonality index of JKSE shows that JKSE has its bottom at July and September not August, and the good news is, we are still on track of the bull.
What I can suggest is trade wise not wasting any penny of yours...
Happy weekend...
Happy Investing^^
Disclaimer ON!!!
