Investing & Trading Analysis

Thursday, 11 February 2010

Market Outlook

The outlook today will be from US indices & JKSE Index. Let's start from the local one as today it closed higher & just broken the 2500 psychological resistance, it seems that JKSE is still moving up. & might go to 2600, but remember, once after touched 2600 please be more careful as last time it really hard to break that level. As JKSE is so high nowadays, we still can speculate a bit on it. Well, in my opinion, get ready with your cash & once it dropped again, we have the cash to buy. Anyway, there's no indicator that recommend to sell. Look at the chart, as the chart is forming well & the economy is growing better than expected, tomorrow might be brighter. Lastly, the Indonesian Statistical Beaureau, stated that they expect Indonesia will grow better than the government's expectation.

Secondly, the favorite one, the Dow Jones Industrial, as it moved in a quite wide range recently. It consists of 30 top industrial companies in USA, well, we can see that it is still near by the 10000 level, but economy is growing & the market activity is recovering.. Yet it is still at mid-term uptrend channel, we can see that it affect our country. Look!!!

Lastly, the S&P500 index which can represent most top 500 companies in USA which is more representative the USA economy, that it isn't in a very 'fit' condition, well, overall US economy is still recovering not really recovered yet, but at this time we can earn more as it is still recovering, not recessing.

Happy Investing^^

Disclaimer ON!!!

Tuesday, 9 February 2010

Feb 10, 2010

For tomorrow, we have some picks like: ADRO, JSMR, SMCB. But now I will only do analysis on JSMR, as it haven't been analyzed by me.

JSMR

The only player in the industry of toll-road. And it seems to be quite impossible to suffer loss, as it is a monopolist. Well, it has good authority in controlling its profit.

Technically, it has just broken it's resistance at 1710, which is a strong support of it. In addition that it closed at 1730, a good point to start the rally.

Rating: Buy On Weakness, TP: 1800-1820, SL: 1620-1650

Sunday, 7 February 2010

IHSG in analysis (Feb 8, 2010)

IHSG is now in a big correction & closed at the short-term support of Fibonacci at 38.2%, and if tomorrow the downward motion continues, then it might continue to go deeper at 2500, 2462.5, 2408, 2383 (might be the worst). Anyway, this time, CASH will be the king...

My own portfolio is 50% of cash, and still wait & see....

For your info, tomorrow will be the cum date of HMSP dividend. Take it or leave it!!!

Happy Investing^^
Disclaimer ON!!!

Feb 8, 2010

After being crashed, one of the stock that showed some great sell signal is SMGR. Take a look at the charts & indicators...

First of all, we'd like to see the MACD indicator that had showed a sell signal since February 1,2010, and till now there's no reversal movement which is added by the gapped down candle stick.

Secondly, the ADX is below the 40, which means the strong uptrend which was created since the crisis recovery has weakened since Oct 20, 2009. Yet, the DI- has crossed above the DI+ which means a bearish has been confirmed, yet the sell signal is showed at the last day of trade which was confirmed by several ADX factors.

Thirdly, the William's %R has showed a sell signal since Jan 28, 2010 and confirmed by Stochastic at Feb 2, 2010. At which the stochastic %K crossed the %D which is a "DEAD-CROSS".

In conclusion, the candle showed a confirmation of bearish which is showed by a gapped down black candle with an increasing volume.