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Tuesday, 23 November 2010

Outlook & News

SHANGHAI (AP) -- China is banning the hoarding of oil, coal and other key commodities, seeking to ensure supplies and cool prices that have surged to politically volatile levels despite repeated moves to curb inflation.
The moves reported by state media Tuesday are Beijing's latest effort to counter unease over inflation that jumped to a 25-month high of 4.4 percent in October. Authorities want to reassure a nervous public that the government can handle inflation pressures that some worry could spiral out of control.

The National Development and Reform Commission, China's main economic planning agency, forbade provinces from limiting shipments of coal beyond their borders, ordering them to ensure stable supplies. The Commerce Ministry, meanwhile, ordered local authorities to crack down on hoarding of oil, gasoline and other fuels, on bogus, or shill, bids meant to drive prices higher, and other illegal practices.
The central bank raised interest rates on Oct. 19 and all signs point to more rate hikes in the months ahead, economists say, as China tries to pull excess cash out of the economy at a time when the U.S. is trying its best to stimulate growth.

Authorities say soaring food prices -- which jumped more than 10 percent in October -- are mainly to blame for the current bout of inflation, but costs for fuel and other necessities have also jumped, as supplies have run short.

Coal, which fuels about three-quarters of the country's electricity generation, is a special concern, especially in winter months when it also is used in heating systems in the north.

Much of the coal is mined in north-central China and then shipped to big cities, utility plants and factories in the eastern coastal regions.

The planning agency complained that some areas, which it did not name, were requiring coal traders to obtain special permits before they can ship coal. "Coal production in some places is rather chaotic and supplies from small mines are unstable," it said.

Seeking to counter widespread shortages of diesel, the Commerce Ministry issued a raft of orders aimed at improving monitoring of supplies and what it calls "market order."

"Oil is important to the people's livelihood strategies for goods and materials, local competent commercial departments at all levels should fully understand the market supply of refined oil security, stability, the importance of oil prices," said a notice posted on the ministry's website.

It urged officials to show a "stronger sense of responsibility." The government has already ordered state-owned refiners to step up production amid signs they were holding back in anticipation of a rise in government-controlled retail prices.

Diesel supplies already were running low after thousands of factories bought diesel generators to cope with power cuts imposed by authorities to meet energy-saving goals, further boosting demand.

Stable fuel supplies are a crucial link in the government's war on inflation, since farmers need diesel fuel to run tractors and other farm equipment.

Economists have forecast that China's inflation rate will likely rise to over 5 percent in November. But local newspapers in Shanghai reported Tuesday that prices for some vegetables had already fallen by as much as 40 percent since last week.

"Stable prices: We have confidence," said a cartoon in Tuesday's online edition of the communist party's newspaper People's Daily. It showed four fists striking at an upward arrow labeled "prices."

Another online illustration, though, was pictures uploaded to one of the newspaper's popular bulletin boards showing people hauling and counting huge bundles of cash during the civil war days of the late 1940s, when China's currency was worth less than its own weight -- an apparently satirical, anonymous, comment on the current situation. (source: Y!Finance)

Comment: by having this rule, prices of commodities like Oil & Coal will be less scarce, which means the price will decline. So, people will start to move their asset from those assets to hard metals (Gold or Silver), this will increase the demand & increase those prices.

Happy Investing^^
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EZ Stocklist (Nov 23, 2010)

Short & Simple!!!!
1. Semen Gresik (SMGR.JK)
Rating: Buy; Entry: 9650-9750, S/L: 9000-8950, TP: 11000-11050


2. Indocement Tunggal Perkasa (INTP.JK)
Rating: Buy; Entry: 17850-17900, S/L: 16450-16400, TP: 20000-20100


3. Semen Holcim (SMCB.JK)
Rating: Buy on Break 2575; Entry: 2600-2625, S/L: 2175-2150, TP: 2750-2800


4. Pakuwon Jati (PWON.JK)
Rating: Buy; Entry: 970-980; S/L: 900-890, TP: 1050-1060

Happy investing...
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Best Regards,
Christopher Tahir
Blog: http://ez-stock.blogspot.com
MSN: chris_tahir@hotmail.com
YM: chris_tahir@ymail.com


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Monday, 22 November 2010

EZ Stock List (Nov 22, 2010)

The stock list for tomorrow is only some but I will really choose from Mining & Consumer Sector.

In mining I have INDY & HEXA, in Consumer I have JPFA, SHID & MAPI.

1. Indika Energy (INDY.JK)
Rating: Buy; Entry: 3850-3875, S/L: 3225-3200, TP: 4200-4250

2. Hexindo Adiperkasa (HEXA.JK)
Rating: Buy; Entry: 6800-6900, S/L: 6450-6400, TP: 7400-7450
Be careful for the gap created, better wait at the gap if wanna get lower price.

3. Japfa Comfeed (JPFA.JK)
Rating: Buy; Entry: 3650-3675, S/L: 3225-3200, TP: 3975-4000

4. Hotel Sahid Jaya (SHID.JK)
Rating: Buy; Entry: 1270-1280, S/L: 1140-1130, TP: 1290-1320

5. Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI.JK)
Rating: Buy on Break of 2375, Entry: 2400-2425, S/L: 2150-2125, TP: 2975-3000

Happy Investing^^
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Sunday, 21 November 2010

Head & Shoulder Pattern

The other popular chart pattern known as Head & Shoulder, which is very common happening in a bubbled underlying (stocks, indices, comodities, etc). Usually this pattern happens in an uptrend underlying found at the top.

This pattern has a target as high as the head to the neck, so it will decline as high as the top to the neck. This is a bullish reversal pattern, also the breakdown thru the neckline must be with a huge volume as the confirmation.

See the figure below
See the volume circled & the blue horizontal line (neck line)


Happy Investing^^
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Saturday, 20 November 2010

Long time no post...

After being long time with almost no time, finally I can be back & post some analysis in my blog again...

How's day friends?? Should be good, I think, even some picks weren't working as what we hope, but we still have some picks which are going as what we hope. A lot of people asking me, where is our index heading? Then I simply answer I don't know, because I have almost no time & my laptop was in the hospital last week. But I see a positivity & optimism in our exchange.

We can see that our index was traded at a very positive enthusiasm from the traders & investors after some dips last day, but still I have to warn you friends, for not being too quick to re-enter the market as it hasn't been 100% confirmed to continue the bull rally for the end of the year. For those who've got stocks in hands, just hold & remember to keep you stop loss level. In the other hand, for those who've not have any stocks, better hold, comfort, wait yourselves for this moment.

Here're some analysis for indices for next week. Let's get started!!!

Based on technical analysis, we can see that our index is now at 3725.05, based on my counting, it must break the number of 3722.62-3730 with volume, unless it can again go down to 3577.85-3590 and consolidate for a while before starting the Q4 Rally (Scenario 1). The other scenario is it keeps the bull rally hot and it might go to 3822-3830 (Scenario 2). See the chart below.
Scenario 1  Index having the Correction


Scenario 2  Index continues the Rally










Based on the oscillators, they show that the index has a tendency to move on again, so it is most probable that Scenario 2 will happen. From most views candlestick, oscillators, mostly are expressing a bull is in place.

The other index is Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which is known to be the most popular one in the world, we can see the tendency of the buying in US is still available, but they have a resistance to be passed at 11231 which hasn't been passed for two days, usually with this kind of pattern, the price will breakout at the third times, we don't know whether it will be on Monday or later. Yet in the last three months it is at a bullish area & still on track, so the target breakout is 11231-11244, once this price has been broken out, then it is highly possible that the index will continue the race. Oscillators are fine & showing a bullish reversal at the last two trading days.



Happy Investing^^
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