JKSE Update

The index seems to be consolidating for this moment as it hasn't got the momentum to break the short term down trend, but seems the consolidation seems to end this February as the Seasonality Index showed that every February is the bottom month in a year beside the August & October.

Well, I see some bull movement will come soon this March as the market makers are still waiting for the inflation & ICB Rate announcement soon, which is expected to be increased to 7%.

Technically, the price is still consolidating even it closed last week nicely & smoothly, but remember we are still in trading phase, next month after financial reports announcements, then it's the time to have another shocks.

Rating: Trading;

I'd enter the market fully loaded if it can break the 3-month high which is the All Time High

Happy Investing^^
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JKSE Update

Market seems to be moving in the direction favoured which is going down to the target level. For those who've got stocks, just hold'em as our stocks are quite defensive ones, but for those who's in full cash, just wait for the opportunity to enter.

For those who still have cash left, maintain the cash level and add the cash level if possible and minimize all your losses.

Happy Investing^^

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JKSE Update

After closing the week at intraday high, JKSE seems to be consolidating at this moment with a tendency of declining, with a lower selling pressure the index seems to be declining slowly but will not affect some defensive stocks that we can collect at this moment before our index continues its rally for the upcoming months. As investors are now allocating their money at safer instruments, stocks market were rushed weeks ago which caused the stock market to be going down.

As a lot of big investors has exited the market & still waiting for the Indonesian Bank to announce the rate in February, January seems to be a consolidation time for our market but not for some stocks especially some stocks which are believed to have good performance in 2010. I believe that after the announcement of the BI rate, our market will get back to the track soon as the capital inflow will continue to come to Indonesia as one of the emerging market which has good growth in economics.

Technically, I see that our index has just finished its pattern of triple top or double top and I believe that the tendency of market sell-off is still exist but not as big as previous weeks, that's why I said it seems to be consolidating until the interest rate has been announced. There're a lot of predictions published by analyst that our interest rate will have a hike at 25-125bps, which will make oiur interest rate become around 6.75-7.75%.

Here's the chart we can see:

Rating: Hold; Target: 3275.48 - 3283.85

The stock list will be published tonight or tomorrow morning, a lot of stocks to be watched & expected to rally later on.

Happy Investing^^

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JKSE in simple analysis

I see that JKSE is now having a chance of breaking another new high record, as the regional are so supporting the Asian markets to rally, yet the indicator of ADX seems to have another crossing from DI+ to the ADX which is the indication of another rally.

We see that at the past time when the DI+ crossing the ADX, then the IHSG will rally, while the current position is, DI+ is almost crossing the ADX, and yet we're almost having our index at new high which was at 3667.01, which means only about 12 pts to go. All indicators are pointing up & yet the time to take some position which is still low & hasn't broken another new high, so we can have this chance to win the market.

I see that the support level at 3531-3540 is quite strong as it has been a bouncing point for two times, and we can see that the index is almost broken its new high again, and I'm really optimistic that it will go further to 3750-3800.

Rating: Buy; Target: 3750-3800, S/L: 3530-3500

We can watch some stocks later...
Have a nice weekend^^


Happy Investing^^
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Wah....

BEAR Outlook is on my view since last week the triple witching day. Even the indexes closed at positive area at that day, but still I have a different point of view that market is still in BEAR.

First thing that still make me pessimistic view is the economic data of US that still showing unfavorable. Hence, there are a lot of anxiety of investors to the stock market. Secondly, the rating of bonds, credits of Euro countries are degrading, which reduce the credibility of the country exceptional for German. Thirdly, the anxiety of Greek's credit for the next 5 years which is expected to be a doubtful debt again.

Let's go back to Indonesia. As analyst said that the Yuan's movement by the MoF of China, will be a good impact for Indonesian export, which will also have a good impact to our country, but still the news can't lift up our index that makes our index still plunge 0.5% this morning.

In the technical view, we can see that JKSE is forming a double top pattern which failed to break 2926 resistance which pull back again. But remember that the double top pattern is confirmed with some criteria like, the increment of volume when the slope is created, secondly it must break the neck line with a great volume, that's the confirmed double top pattern.

Rating: HOLD

Happy Investing^^

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JKSE Outlook for this week

Bearish mode seems to be quite sure on the market as Dow Jones Industrial back to below 10,000 pts level, which is quite dangerous, as we know that US market indicator again showing a lower than expected or worse than expected number which once again creating anxiety of investors.

But once again we had nothing to do but avoiding the market for a moment. Once again market is the king, we can just follow the trend. As I've told you all that our market is not in a good mood, at which suddenly the market crashed again this past Friday. One of the cause is the worse than expected of number of Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, etc.

And the most shocking is the Crude Oil, which is showing a good sign but suddenly it went down. The good sign which might increase the price of Crude Oil is the lacking of BP's oil in Mexico City which reduce the oil inventory yet the demand is increasing. I'm still optimistic to the price of oil, as the Friday's sell off is only a panic selling of the Oil Futures.

Back to our Indonesian market, yet the new minister of finance seems to have a welcome from the investors as the index grew and quite stable since last week where as the regional even in reds, we're still in a confident about our market, but again US Dollar is getting strong and also people are moving their investment to Gold which creating the increment of demand of Gold, so do my outlook at JKSE is still unstable actually, and we'd better to SELL ON STRENGTH in this moment rather than we're in a bad position of red.

But once again, who knows where market is aiming to, we can just take a look & wait of what will happen tomorrow. Hold your cash & go for World Cup, not stock in a moment as the trend goes to World Cup season...

Happy Investing^^

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JKSE Target & Analysis

New Minister of Finance has been elected, who is very surprisingly finally becoming our MoF, who is not even ever becoming a Minister, Agus Marto. He was an ex-chief director of Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK, BMRI:IJ).

Global market is still unstable with a very high volatility, that after Greece's problem has been solved, come another problem, like the prohibition of short selling in Deutsche Exchange, Oil is dropping, Gold, Silver , Platinum & Palladium are too...

Technically, we can see that even the indicators are oversold, there's almost no strength of bull can be shown in the trading time since the bear is taking control. Seems the power of bear is getting stronger & stronger. We can see that the pattern of Elliot wave for this chart is quite valid. So, my analysis today is for the next lower target. If the price is going down without any prolonging of the down pressure, the price target will be quite near which is at 2575-2590, but if the bear is prolonging the power, then the next target will be around 2395-2410.

As we can see that we're still in a wave 3 (down), so the potential to get upward is still open that we must wait for wave 4 (up) confirmation.

Rating : Hold; TP: 2685-2700 ; 2575-2590 ; 2395-2410

Happy Investing^^

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