Long time no updates...

Sorry for disappearing for several days, a week or more maybe, as usual, I'll give you my view on exchanges, US & IDX.

In my point of view, the overall market says "WARNING", this is indicated by the slowing down of the Economic Index.

So, better to Sell On Strength before Sell On Weakness happen.

Happy Investing^^

Disclaimer ON!!!

We are Different

Regional are in reds,but we are in green.

In my opinion,this is a trap for you,so before get trapped,get away from market. As what I read at the previous post,that fundamental are getting weak,while technical seems to have a top reversal.

Happy investing^^
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Best Regards,
Christopher Tahir
MSN : chris_tahir@hotmail.com
YM : chris_tahir@ymail.com
FB : chris.tahir@yahoo.com
Blog : ez-stock.blogspot.com

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Rally Under Pressure – Technicals Toppy – Fundamentals Weaken – Seasonality Bearish

Last month we discussed keeping an open mind and not getting caught up or blinded by ones own forecasts, analysis or opinion, especially when it pertains to the ever-fickle stock market. Despite our belief and projection since our 2010 Annual forecast made in December 2009 that the market would rally and stall near Dow 12,000 and then succumb to a mild-to-average bear market, correcting 20-30% from the high to the low in 2010, we remain prudent and alert for signs that this may not transpire.

Four weeks later we find our concerns rekindled and our bearish analysis somewhat more validated. The rally off the June 7 lows has lacked conviction. Volume has been unimpressive and price action weak. Volume generally tapers off this time of year during the Worst Six Months, but this provides little solace. Our Seasonal MACD Sell Signal have been issued and if seasonality prevails, as we suspect it will in 2010, this typical decline in volume will be accompanied by a decline in stocks and the major stock indices.

But before we run through some of the issues that concern us with respect to economics, geopolitics, fundamentals, technicals and internals; let’s remember that while we remain prudent and defensive, an excellent buying opportunity is setting up. Since 1914, from the midterm year low (like 2010) to the pre-election year high the Dow has averaged a 50% gain. Our complete latest analysis has just been released to subscribers. (Source: STA'2010)

Happy Investing^^
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Bear Outlook is on The Counter

I'm afraid that the bear market hasn't finished yet, as there are a lot of bad news comes from Europe & US. Yet, this could affect the investing decision of the investors.

As The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its target for the federal funds rate at a range of zero to 0.25% and maintained its pledge to keep rates at this historic low level for an "extended period" to support the recovery. In a statement after their two-day meeting, the Fed downgraded the outlook. They said financial conditions "have become less supportive of economic growth" largely as a result of the European debt crisis. There was one dissent from the policy statement by Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. Hoenig has dissented from every statement this year. (MarketWatch)

Yet, New Home Sales dropped by 146K to 300K which is also lower than the analyst expectation. Moreover the Chief of The Fed is worrying about recession this time so that he maintains low-rate, that seems to be ineffective til now, as we can see that the rate is low, but the industrial is declining.

Wait & see for this moment before entering the market.

Happy Investing^^
Disclaimer ON!!!

Wah....

BEAR Outlook is on my view since last week the triple witching day. Even the indexes closed at positive area at that day, but still I have a different point of view that market is still in BEAR.

First thing that still make me pessimistic view is the economic data of US that still showing unfavorable. Hence, there are a lot of anxiety of investors to the stock market. Secondly, the rating of bonds, credits of Euro countries are degrading, which reduce the credibility of the country exceptional for German. Thirdly, the anxiety of Greek's credit for the next 5 years which is expected to be a doubtful debt again.

Let's go back to Indonesia. As analyst said that the Yuan's movement by the MoF of China, will be a good impact for Indonesian export, which will also have a good impact to our country, but still the news can't lift up our index that makes our index still plunge 0.5% this morning.

In the technical view, we can see that JKSE is forming a double top pattern which failed to break 2926 resistance which pull back again. But remember that the double top pattern is confirmed with some criteria like, the increment of volume when the slope is created, secondly it must break the neck line with a great volume, that's the confirmed double top pattern.

Rating: HOLD

Happy Investing^^

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