China's Inflation Exceeds Economists' Estimates at 6.4%
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- China's consumer prices climbed a more-than-estimated 6.4 percent in June as food costs surged, weakening the case for the central bank to refrain from more monetary tightening.
The gain was the biggest in three years and compared with the median 6.2 percent estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 economists. Producer price inflation was a higher-than-forecast 7.1 percent. The statistics bureau released the numbers on its website today.
Premier Wen Jiabao aims to tame inflation without choking off an expansion that is already slowing as export orders weaken and tightening measures take effect. An unexpected increase in U.S. unemployment and a threatened default by Greece have underscored the world's reliance on China, the fastest-growing major economy.
"Inflation will come down during the second half," Chen Xingdong, chief economist for China at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing, said before the release. "The government will need to shift to more of a balance between retaining growth and controlling inflation," he said, adding that interest rates may stay on hold for the rest of the year.
Today's announcement was brought forward from July 15 as the statistics bureau moves to cut the risk of leaks. The central bank announced an interest rate increase, this year's third, on July 6.
The gain in producer prices compared with the 6.9 percent median estimate of economists. Consumer-price inflation compared with 5.5 percent in May.
Taxis, Food
Shanghai taxi fares jumped today, adding to price increases by companies from McDonald's Corp to Starbucks Corp. While Wen sees inflation as "controllable," he also acknowledged last month that the government's 4 percent target for the full year may be out of reach.
Before today's announcement, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this week's quarter-point boost to interest rates was likely to be the year's last, with price gains set to moderate.
Signs that the economy is cooling include a slide in a manufacturing gauge to a 28-month low in June. Inflation may slow partly because of more favorable year-earlier bases for comparison in the second half.
Investors are focused on China's growth after U.S. employers increased payrolls last month by less than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey and as officials in Europe craft a second rescue package for Greece.
China's Expansion
China's expansion may have slowed to 9.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier after a 9.7 percent increase in the first three months of this year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. That data is due July 13.
Goldman Sachs estimates gross domestic product rose 8 percent from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis, compared with its 9 percent estimate for the previous three months.
Inflation and corruption can have an "impact on the stability of a political power and the peacefulness of a society," Wen said in London last month. He pledged in March to rein in "exorbitant" house price increases in some cities that have fueled public discontent.
Global food costs are also part of the challenge, with prices rising 39 percent in June from a year earlier, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. In China, pork prices have surged.
"I don't think policies should loosen," Cui Li, a Hong Kong-based economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc. who previously worked at the International Monetary Fund, said before today's data. "We may have to wait until August for inflation to peak."
China's key one-year lending rate is 6.56 percent and the one-year deposit rate is 3.5 percent. Cui expects two more rate increases this year.
Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday that interest rates are not the only tool for controlling inflation.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sophie Leung in Hong Kong at sleung59@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst in Hong Kong at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net
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